Outlook 2026
As we prepare for 2026 our CIOs and fund managers reflect on the key trends shaping the financial world in the coming year, including whether the AI surge still has room to run, the investment implications of the European sovereignty agenda, whether the energy transition is becoming an integral part of fundamental decision making, the convergence of developed and emerging market government bonds and opportunities in credit.
Marketing Communication
Outlook 2026 - Strong issuers, tight spreads
Outlook 2026 - Blurring the line between emerging and developed markets
Outlook 2026 - AI
Outlook 2026 - European sovereignty takes centre stage
Outlook 2026 - Momentum mounts for the energy transition
DPAM Outlook 2026 - Aftermovie
Related articles
Want to learn more? We take a closer look at each of our six key topics in these articles.
Outlook 2026: European sovereignty takes centre stage
In the face of external threats, the EU is responding. Sovereignty is no longer an abstract aspiration - the EU’s focus is on securing and shaping its own future - as set out in the European Commission’s 2026 work programme, entitled ‘Europe’s independence moment’.
Outlook 2026 : Ten reasons we are not in an AI bubble
Everyone is asking the same question: is AI the new dot-com bubble? Stock prices are climbing, headlines are growing louder, and the hype is hard to miss. But under the surface, this cycle does not necessarily behave like a bubble that’s ready to burst. It looks much more like the early days of smartphones or cloud computing: large-scale adoption, real productivity gains, and hard physical bottlenecks that prevent oversupply.
Outlook 2026: Global fiscal policy
Over the past five years, fiscal policy has played a dominant role in shaping global economic dynamics. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global debt levels surged to unprecedented highs, driven by necessary fiscal interventions. Concurrently, rising interest rates have significantly increased debt-servicing costs, adding further strain to public finances.
Outlook 2026 : Strong issuers, tight spreads
The credit universe will enter the upcoming year with historically narrow spread levels. Spreads began tightening during the post-COVID recovery and have remained compressed through 2023 to 2025. By mid-2025, investment-grade corporate spreads in Europe and the United States were near the tightest levels seen since the financial crisis. Fundamentals have strengthened, but valuations leave little room for error. Are investors still being paid for the risks they are taking at current spread levels?
Outlook 2026: Blurring the line between emerging and developed markets
Over the past twenty years, emerging markets have experienced a significant growth spurt: their policies are stronger, their financial systems are steadier, and their behaviour during global stress looks far closer to that of developed markets than it once did. The following seven graphs serve to illustrate the increasing convergence between both markets.
Outlook 2026: Momentum mounts for the transition
As momentum mounts for the transition globally, we consider how the transition has become integral to fundamental decision making and key questions for consideration.
Outlook 2026: Sustainability's reality check
Europe’s journey with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investing has been nothing short of transformative. In the early 2020s, a wave of sustainable finance swept the continent, with investors, institutions and policymakers rallying behind ambitious net-zero targets, climate-focused funds booming and regulatory frameworks like the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) setting the pace for global markets.
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