Brazil’s 2026 election may be a breaking point for the country’s markets and policies. Fiscal rules, interest rates, and asset returns all depend on who wins. With questions over whether Lula will seek re-election and no clear conservative successor to Bolsonaro, the field is wide open.

April 11, 2025: Recent market developments have added selling pressure to credit markets and brought renewed attention to the behaviour of European, US and emerging market government bonds, as well as overall liquidity conditions. Changes in investor sentiment, driven by global trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, rate volatility, and safe-haven dynamics, have influenced fixed income markets. Our experts have compiled a breakdown of current trends in corporate bonds, European, US and emerging market rates, investor reactions, and broader liquidity considerations.

According to a recent study by Bloomberg NEF, global energy transition investments exceeded USD 2.1 trillion in 2024, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous year. While this marks a significant milestone, it also represents a slowdown from the 25%+ annual growth rates seen in prior years. The key question remains: is this level of investment sufficient?