“Javier Milei’s dollarization and fiscal austerity proposals overlook the complexities of modern economies, ignore lessons from historical crises, and open the door for accentuating already severe inequalities.”

Brazil’s 2026 election may be a breaking point for the country’s markets and policies. Fiscal rules, interest rates, and asset returns all depend on who wins. With questions over whether Lula will seek re-election and no clear conservative successor to Bolsonaro, the field is wide open.

April 11, 2025: Recent market developments have added selling pressure to credit markets and brought renewed attention to the behaviour of European, US and emerging market government bonds, as well as overall liquidity conditions. Changes in investor sentiment, driven by global trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, rate volatility, and safe-haven dynamics, have influenced fixed income markets. Our experts have compiled a breakdown of current trends in corporate bonds, European, US and emerging market rates, investor reactions, and broader liquidity considerations.