Inflation is, by definition, a lagging statistic. By the time official CPI prints confirm that price pressures are rising or easing, markets have already spent weeks, often months or even years, trying to anticipate that outcome. That is why fixed income investors spend so much time on market-based measures of inflation expectations. They are imperfect, but they offer a forward-looking view of where inflation is expected to settle across different horizons. So before asking what inflation means for markets today, it is worth starting with how those expectations are measured, and how they help investors and policymakers judge the appropriate central bank response.

In the 1980s, Business Development Companies (BDCs) were established as publicly listed investment companies to provide debt and equity financing to small and mid-sized US companies. The capital is permanent; investors can enter or exit by buying or selling shares on the stock exchange. The sector remained relatively small for several decades

The strikes in Iran and across the Middle East carry severe human consequences for the region. For the markets, the key question concerns the potential impact on oil prices, inflation, growth and asset pricing.