Inflation is, by definition, a lagging statistic. By the time official CPI prints confirm that price pressures are rising or easing, markets have already spent weeks, often months or even years, trying to anticipate that outcome. That is why fixed income investors spend so much time on market-based measures of inflation expectations. They are imperfect, but they offer a forward-looking read on where inflation is expected to settle across different horizons. So before asking what inflation means for markets today, it is worth starting with how those expectations are measured, and how they help investors and policymakers judge the appropriate central bank response.

The global credit landscape is evolving rapidly, shaped by persistent inflation concerns, shifting monetary policy, resilient corporate fundamentals and volatility. Against this backdrop, blue-chip corporate issuers are increasingly being seen as less risky than many sovereigns. However, in this uncertain context, returning to fundamentals, including issuer quality and diversification is key.

An analysis of the forces driving UK borrowing costs to multi-decade highs and what it would take to bring them back down.