Inflation is, by definition, a lagging statistic. By the time official CPI prints confirm that price pressures are rising or easing, markets have already spent weeks, often months or even years, trying to anticipate that outcome. That is why fixed income investors spend so much time on market-based measures of inflation expectations. They are imperfect, but they offer a forward-looking view of where inflation is expected to settle across different horizons. So before asking what inflation means for markets today, it is worth starting with how those expectations are measured, and how they help investors and policymakers judge the appropriate central bank response.

The strikes in Iran and across the Middle East carry severe human consequences for the region. For the markets, the key question concerns the potential impact on oil prices, inflation, growth and asset pricing.

A nivel global, las rentabilidades de los activos de máxima calidad se perciben limitadas una vez descontados inflación e impuestos. Aunque los balances corporativos se mantienen sólidos, los spreads están ajustados y el carry es reducido. En este escenario, la deuda de mercados emergentes destaca por ofrecer una combinación atractiva: rentas recurrentes y un potencial de plusvalías derivado de la apreciación de divisas, la relajación de políticas monetarias y la mejora de perfiles crediticios. Además, la clase de activo ha madurado: hoy cuenta con instituciones más sólidas, mayor liquidez y una base inversora local más amplia, lo que incrementa su capacidad de resistencia ante episodios de volatilidad.