30 juli 2024
The past, present, and future of EU fiscal policy
A 60% debt-to-GDP ratio and a 3% annual deficit limit, these are the two fiscal benchmarks included in the EU treaties to ensure countries maintain sound public finances. Today, the total debt-to-GDP ratio in the Eurozone stands at 89%, with major economies like France and Italy even having ratios higher than 110%. Looking forward, what does this escalation mean for future fiscal policy in the Eurozone, and what are the implications for markets?
30 juli 2024
Stock returns’ sensitivity to interest rates and inflation expectations
Global investors have focused intently on inflation and interest rate expectations over the last few years. In this article, we take stock of equities’ sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation expectations. We note a couple of exceptional findings regarding today's sensitivity compared to the last few decades.
23 juli 2024
The Fed easing cycle is coming
The US economy is still defying the odds by growing at potential, notwithstanding higher interest rates. Consumer spending has been supported by a strong labour market. Also, household wealth gained from rising house prices and a buoyant equity market, due to the AI boom.