AI-driven bubble fears and a liquidity scare took centre stage during the fourth quarter. Mixed sentiment triggered spikes in market volatility, yet most major equity indices closed the year at or near all-time highs. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, delivered another standout quarter, while cryptocurrencies tumbled. We examine the drivers behind the turbulence and outline the outlook for the year ahead.

Negli ultimi cinque anni, le politiche fiscali hanno avuto un ruolo centrale nel definire le dinamiche economiche globali. Dopo la pandemia di COVID-19, i livelli di debito mondiale sono saliti a valori senza precedenti, spinti dagli interventi fiscali necessari. Parallelamente, l’aumento dei tassi di interesse ha fatto crescere in modo significativo i costi di servizio del debito, esercitando ulteriore pressione sui conti pubblici.

US equity markets kept breaking records in the third quarter, yet with a record 91% of fund managers believing US stocks are overvalued (BofA Fund Manager Survey), this may be one of the most hated rallies on record. As Peter Lynch once warned, far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than lost in the corrections themselves.