Inflation is, by definition, a lagging statistic. By the time official CPI prints confirm that price pressures are rising or easing, markets have already spent weeks, often months or even years, trying to anticipate that outcome. That is why fixed income investors spend so much time on market-based measures of inflation expectations. They are imperfect, but they offer a forward-looking read on where inflation is expected to settle across different horizons. So before asking what inflation means for markets today, it is worth starting with how those expectations are measured, and how they help investors and policymakers judge the appropriate central bank response.

The global credit landscape is evolving rapidly, shaped by persistent inflation concerns, shifting monetary policy, resilient corporate fundamentals and volatility. Against this backdrop, blue-chip corporate issuers are increasingly being seen as less risky than many sovereigns. However, in this uncertain context, returning to fundamentals, including issuer quality and diversification is key.

The next six months are likely to be set against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty, shaped by ongoing energy crises, volatile policy signals and shifting regulatory landscapes. While short-term volatility persists, the direction of travel for investors is increasingly clear: long-term trends, particularly decarbonisation, the energy transition, digitalisation, and climate adaptation, are more relevant than ever.