The price of gold has risen significantly in US dollar terms, and often even more in other currencies. From mid-2022 onwards, many investors were surprised that the price of gold moved up while US real rates also increased. Historically, gold performed well when US real rates (nominal rates minus inflation) fell, and vice versa. So, why has the correlation between gold and US real rates changed? Why has gold performed so well when real yields rose?

For this mid-year outlook, we break down our findings into two key themes: a long-term view of the future, and the more near-term influences of the business cycle. This dual focus helps to shape our strategic positioning and clarifies investment perspectives for the year.

The markets have been anything but boring this year: with unexpectedly strong earnings, adjustments of interest rate expectations, and a fair share of volatility, investors have had to manoeuvre through economic shifts and geopolitical crises, while taking into account upcoming election woes. What does this mean for you and how can you prepare your portfolio accordingly? Let’s take a look at what we’ve been through, what the markets are currently up against and what else 2024 has in store.